In 2026 climate scientists downgraded their worst-case scenario for global warming from 4.5°C to 2.7°C. This proves that their models were flawed from the outset and cannot be relied upon as indicators of where the world is headed.
Fact:
It’s true that scientists have now downgraded their worst-case scenario for global warming to 2.7°C, but not because their modelling was wrong. Rather, it’s because the rate of increase of greenhouse gas emissions has slowed considerably over the past 10 years, due to rapid technological change and concrete actions on the part of governments.
As recently as a decade ago it looked like fossil fuel use would continue to rise at the same pace as economic growth, leading to a disastrous outcome for the planet. Yet today, the demand for coal, gas and oil is beginning to plateau, thanks to the rapid development of solar, wind and battery storage, as well as the proliferation of electric vehicles. Back then it was also impossible to imagine the extent to which nations would act to cut their emissions. This was particularly so with China, the world’s biggest polluter, which has now become the global leader in renewable energy. Its emissions were expected to rise until at least 2030 but stabilised in 2024 and have now started to fall.
Little wonder then that the world is no longer on the trajectory predicted by the scientific community 20 years ago. Of course, this is not to say that we are to be spared the ravages of global warming. A temperature increase of 2.7°C is still going to cause serious problems for the world, but it’s not the doomsday outcome that was once feared.