Overpopulation is the reason why the Earth is warming. Unless we can drastically reduce the world’s population, we cannot do anything about climate change. Fact: Overpopulation is a serious problem and is putting great stress on the planet’s resources. However, it is not the main factor driving climate change. A person’s environmental footprint is calculated by the following formula: Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology (I = PAT). The fact is, while population might be great in many poor countries, affluence and technology are not. Most of our greenhouse gas emissions are a result of these latter two factors, and originate in the wealthy nations, not the developing ones. [China is the main exception to this, although it should be noted that most of its CO2 emissions are generated by its upper and middle classes, not its poor. This will change, of course, as the country continues to develop.] The solution is to be found by changing the technology we use to generate wealth. By using renewable energy, we can go on living comfortable lives without altering the Earth’s climate. 

Emissions from China and India will overwhelm any reductions achieved by the rest of the world, so nations like Australia are wasting their time taking action on climate. Fact: China and India are not doing nothing and are nowhere near as responsible for the problem as we are. Most of the CO2 in the atmosphere was put there by the nations of Europe and North America, so it is incumbent on them to take the lead when it comes to solving the problem. Australia, with the second-largest greenhouse gas emissions per capita among the OECD nations, is also responsible for a disproportionately high level of CO2. It has a moral responsibility to rectify this.  It’s also worth noting that if Australians really are concerned about China’s and India’s emissions, they should stop selling them the coal and gas that are causing those emissions.

Global warming is an international problem and needs an international solution. No nation can act alone. Fact: We already have an international solution: the Paris Agreement. Many nations are taking it seriously, and even with the return of Donald Trump, US emissions are still going down, albeit not as rapidly as they were under Joe Biden. China is also taking serious action, with the nation already six years ahead of schedule in its quest to reach net zero. Given that China is responsible for almost a third of global emissions, its actions will have a greater impact than those of any other nation.  The Paris Agreement. Signatories are in blue; non-signatories in yellow and nations that have withdrawn (only the US) in move. [Source: Wikimedia Commons]

Methane clathrates have already been irreversibly destabilised by the current level of global warming, meaning that catastrophic temperature increases can’t be stopped. There is therefore no point in cutting CO2 emissions. Fact: Methane clathrates are ice-like substances that trap methane gas in a cage of water molecules. They form below the seabed and in permafrost. If just a fraction of one percent of the methane trapped in these clathrates were released into the atmosphere, it would indeed add significantly to global warming. However, there is no evidence that this is about to happen, so we are not facing such a doomsday scenario. The planet’s methane clathrates are still locked away safely beneath the oceans and in the Arctic permafrost. 

Even if we stopped all greenhouse gas emissions, the CO2 and methane we have already released would stay in the atmosphere forever, so the planet is still doomed.  Fact: This is not true. The oceans and land absorb about 60 percent of the CO2 we emit each year, so if we reduced our emissions to zero, these would become giant CO2 sponges. Scientists estimate that it would take about 50 years for our cumulative CO2 emissions to fall by 60 percent, and 200 years for them to fall by 80 percent. [Unfortunately, it would take thousands of years for them to fall back to pre-industrial levels. But this is not necessary.]  Methane, which accounts for about a third of our greenhouse gas emissions, would be even easier to eliminate, as methane molecules only stay in the atmosphere for 12 years, by which time it is largely converted to CO2. Methane levels would start falling very quickly if we reduced our emissions to zero (or to somewhere thereabouts). The news is even better when it comes to global temperature. Climate scientists estimate that this will stabilise with three to five years after we reach net zero. 

There’s nothing we can do about climate change; it’s too big a problem and it’s too late to act. If we’re already heading for 2.7°C warming, we’re doomed anyway.  Fact: It may indeed be too late to keep warming to 1.5°C. Even 2°C will be difficult. But both those temperatures are manageable ecologically, and we have all the technology and economic levers we need to stop further increases. The problem is getting politicians to act. That’s why public pressure is so important.